I am good at math but do not have any experience with running simulations and finding probabilities etc. which some of you may have at your disposal. Now of course the Martingale system blows up (into the thousands/millions very quickly) at losing streaks that will absolutely happen, completely devastating winnings that accumulate relatively slowly. My proposal is this:
Do a modified Martingale that begins with a $5 and ends at $20 (or 40?). If you lose your 20, start the system over again. Do this only at a positive count to reduce losses.
I am playing 6 deck, H17, DAS, resplit aces, surrender.
Now guessing that loss percentage will be around 49% though I am positive that some will know better and that it should be lower especially with counting involved.
(.49)^3=.118 or 1:8.5
Win = 7.5x5 - 1x(20+10+5) = 37.5 -35 = $2.5
There would also be the addition of 3:2 blackjack which would increase winning and not affect losses. Even several bad runs will not result in the projected losses of a true martingale or hopefully the wins associated with several good runs.
Please tell me what you think. I would love to see the math that would show if this works or not. Thank you for your time.
Martingale Blackjack
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