Jan 27, 2021 There’s only one way to watch the Super Bowl: With friends, food, and ridiculous amounts of wagering action on even the most fractionally-relevant minutia of the game. Prop bets are what make a national de facto holiday truly a celebration. Whether it’s a favorite player or a Gatorade color, we’ve got some of the best bets available below. Jan 29, 2021 A bettor counts out the cash he will be placing as the Westgate sportsbook posts hundreds of Super Bowl prop bets on Thursday, Jan. 28, 2021, in Las Vegas. Looking for expert analysis of Super Bowl LV prop bets? Get a full rundown on each prop from the length of national anthem performance to which team scores last.
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets This Year
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets 2018 Espn
- Best Super Bowl Prop Bets
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The Westgate SuperBook and William Hill’s sportsbook on Thursday released their long lists of Super Bowl prop bets, which in Las Vegas has become something of a cherished Super Bowl bye week tradition.
Westgate’s prop book has grown to such heft that it contains a table of contents, with bets that are both straightforward (the point spread, the total) and wildly esoteric (which will be more: the number of Stanley Cup playoff wins by the Colorado Avalanche or Super Bowl points by Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker). If you can’t find a bet worth making, you probably aren’t looking hard enough. (For the most basic bet, take the Buccaneers and the points.)
We combed through the lists to find Super Bowl prop bets worth your consideration, with their picks below in bold. Note: The listed odds were taken from the prop sheets handed out by the books Thursday and may fluctuate as we get closer to kickoff.
Print this sheet and play Super Bowl prop bets at homeFor the uninitiated, negative odds denote the favorite (minus-110 means you would wager $110 to win $100), while positive odds denote the underdog (plus-110 means you would wager $100 to win $110).
Will there be a two-point conversion attempt? (Westgate)
Yes +130
No -150
Though this prop didn’t hit in last year’s game, a team has gone for two in eight of the past 11 Super Bowls. And even though neither team went for two all that much in the regular season — both tried only twice, with the Chiefs converting both attempts and the Bucs failing each time — the final-game desperation makes this plus-money bet one worth looking at. Tampa Bay also went for two in the second quarter of its first-round game against Washington, failing to convert.
— Matt Bonesteel
Will there be a missed extra point? (William Hill)
Yes +250
No -300
Since the distance on extra points was pushed back in 2015, NFL kickers have hit 6,875 of 7,328 extra-point attempts for a success rate of 93.8 percent. That has improved slightly in the postseason, with kickers successful on 286 of 302 tries (94.7 percent). Tampa Bay kicker Ryan Succop and his Kansas City counterpart, Harrison Butker, have lagged a bit with rates of 92 and 90 percent, which makes the “yes” side enticing.
If we were to assume each kicker could get three chances in this game, the average number of touchdowns each team has scored this season, including the playoffs, that would imply there is a 56 percent chance both kickers are perfect on extra-point attempts during Super Bowl LV. That, in turn, equates to a +125 money line for the “yes,” lower than what is being offered.
— Neil Greenberg
The Chiefs and Buccaneers can both score, but bet the under in the Super BowlWill either team score in the first five minutes? (WH)
Yes -110
No -110
According to data from TruMedia, the Chiefs and Buccaneers combined to score 25 times on 81 drives (14 touchdowns and 11 field goals) in the first five minutes of games during the regular season and playoffs. That rate (31 percent) implies a money line of +220 for the positive and -220 for the negative, so “no” has value.
— Neil Greenberg
Will either team score in the final 3½ minutes? (Westgate)
Yes -170
No +250
This has become one of the more reliable props in recent Super Bowl history — the heavy juice on “yes” reflects that — because the games have been close: The last true blowout took place seven years ago in Super Bowl XLVIII, when the Seahawks scored a 43-8 win over the Broncos. The six Super Bowls since have been decided by an average of 8.8 points, and each of those games featured a score in the final 3½ minutes. (And last year there were two.) This prop has hit in 22 of the past 27 Super Bowls, and with just a 3½-point spread, another close game could be at hand this year.
Best Super Bowl Prop Bets This Year
— Matt Bonesteel
What will happen first? (WH)
Bucs score +105
Bucs punt -125
Tampa Bay scored before it punted in 10 of 19 games, including four of its last five heading into the Super Bowl. Kansas City allowed a score before a punt in 10 of 18 games, including its last three. At least one team has scored on its opening drive in 10 of the past 14 Super Bowls, and the Chiefs gave up a field goal on the 49ers’ opening drive last year.
— Matt Bonesteel
Yards of longest accepted penalty (WH)
Under 19.5 yards -110
Over 19.5 yards -110
This one is predicated on the assumption that it only will hit if there’s a defensive pass interference penalty on a long pass play, and neither team has any particularly striking deep threat. Among the pass-catchers in this game, Tampa Bay’s Scotty Miller is tops in average depth of target at 16 yards per target (ninth in the NFL during the regular season), and Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill is next at 12.9 (tied for 30th). Combine that with Tom Brady’s aging arm (20.6 percent of his passes were considered bad throws this season, fourth worst in the league), the Chiefs’ quick-strike offense (Patrick Mahomes ranked just 13th in intended air yards per attempt) and the fact that the Bucs were flagged for DPI only eight times, and the under is worth a look.
— Matt Bonesteel
Which will be higher? (WH)
Alex Ovechkin total shots on goal +100
Tyrann Mathieu total tackles (solo plus assists) -120
The Washington Capitals face the Philadelphia Flyers on Super Bowl Sunday and the Great Eight is averaging a career-low 3.3 shots per game this season. The Flyers are one of the worst teams at suppressing shots at even strength this year, allowing 34 shots per 60 minutes at even strength, and Philadelphia also surrenders the 10th-highest rate of shots on the penalty kill, playing into one of Ovechkin’s strengths, but this still seems like the losing side. Mathieu averaged four tackles per game during the regular season and has 13 tackles in two playoff games. He has missed only four tackles all season.
— Neil Greenberg
First offensive play of the game (WH)
Rush -150
Pass +130
Tampa Bay and Kansas City ran the ball often on their first plays of the game. The Chiefs ran the ball 13 of 18 times, and the Bucs handed it off 11 of 19 times. That’s a run rate of 65 percent on their initial first and 10, which implies a money line of -185, making the -150 being offered decent value.
— Neil Greenberg
Take the Buccaneers and the points against Patrick Mahomes and the ChiefsTotal sacks by the Buccaneers’ defense (WH)
Over 2 +120
Under 2 -140
Tampa Bay generated the third-highest pressure rate in the NFL during the regular season (27 percent), with the sixth-highest sack rate after adjusting for strength of schedule. Shaquil Barrett led all edge rushers with 76 pressures (sacks, hits and hurries), and the linebacker was credited with the third-highest pressure total (26) at his position per Pro Football Focus.
The Bucs have registered seven sacks in three playoff matchups, including five against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC championship game.
— Neil Greenberg
Will Patrick Mahomes throw an interception? (WH)
Yes +100
No -120
Mahomes was one of the most accurate and disciplined passers of 2020. According to Sports Info Solutions, he had an “on-target” rate of 71 percent (10th best), and he avoided tossing the ball into tight coverage (11 percent, the third-lowest rate behind Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers). That combination led to him leading the league in interception rate (six over 588 attempts, 1 percent) during the regular season. Mahomes also didn’t get picked off by Tampa Bay when they met in the regular season, and he hasn’t thrown an interception during this year’s playoff run, either.
— Neil Greenberg
Will there be a successful fourth-down conversion? (WH)
Yes -360
No +300
Since Mahomes became Kansas City’s starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have converted a fourth-down opportunity in 49 percent of his games. That jumps to 71 percent in the playoffs. Kansas City has also converted a fourth down in three straight games and in four of its past five started by Mahomes. Tampa Bay converted a fourth down in eight regular season games in 2020 and one in each of its past two playoff games.
— Neil Greenberg
Longest reception by Tyreek Hill (Westgate)
Over 27½ yards -110
Under 27½ yards -110
A dozen of Hill’s 87 catches went for 28 yards or more during the regular season, and he added two more during the playoff run. He’s also the only player with three receptions of 28 or more yards against Tampa Bay’s defense this year. Hill caught 13 of 15 targets for 269 yards and three touchdowns in that Nov. 29 game, his longest a 75-yard score in the first quarter.
— Neil Greenberg
First-half points scored by the Chiefs (WH)
Over 15 points -120
Under 15 points +100
The Chiefs’ offense has scored at least 16 first-half points in eight games; that includes the regular season game against Tampa Bay and both of Kansas City’s playoff games. However, only six other teams managed 16 or more first-half points against the Bucs’ defense in 2020, and Tampa Bay has also allowed just 30 first-half points in three playoff games. (In a less exotic wager, you should also take the under for the game total.)
— Neil Greenberg
Will the game go to overtime? (WH)
Yes +575
No -850
Since 2002, 291 of 4,864 regular season games have gone to overtime, about 6 percent. In the playoffs, that has been a little more frequent at 11 percent, with the first three rounds carrying most of the freight. There has been just one overtime Super Bowl game in the past 18 seasons.
— Neil Greenberg
Super Bowl 55 is nearly upon us, and that means it’s time for you to do some research on how to bet on the game, if that’s something you like to do.
That’s where this annual post comes in.
We picked 10 prop bets that are game-specific (a roundup with our more fun prop predictions will be coming soon!), and delivered our expert takes to help you win some money on Sunday.
A reminder: just because the favorites to win some of these are the obvious choice doesn’t make them the best bet to make.
Away we go!
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
1 Chiefs: First touchdown scorer
Steven: Travis Kelce (+600)
It was between Kelce and Tyreek Hill for me, and I ultimately went with the tight end because I refuse to believe the Bucs are going to let the latter run wild after what he did in the first game between these teams. On that opening possession, they’re going to make the Chiefs work for it and they’ll have to score in the red zone. That’s Kelce’s territory.
Charles M: Patrick Mahomes (+2200)
The Chiefs have always been pretty good at designing read and option plays for Mahomes near the goal line. They scored on one last year in their Super Bowl win against the 49ers and they aren’t afraid to use his athleticism when space gets tight.
Charles C: Darrell Williams (+1600)
I’m eyeing the Patrick Mahomes odds at +2200, but it feels like Andy Reid will lean on Williams to run early on, so I’ll back the RB to find the end zone first.
2 Buccaneers: First touchdown scorer
Steven: Rob Gronkowski (+1800)
Those odds are too good to pass up, and Gronk had a good game in the first matchup. I think he’ll be a big part of this week’s gameplan given the personnel the Chiefs defense trots out there. He’ll have some mismatches and Tom Brady will look to exploit them.
Charles M: Mike Evans (+1200)
I like how the Bucs wide receivers match up against the Chiefs cornerbacks. Evans is the Bucs best, healthiest receiver entering the game and they should feed him early and often.
Charles C: Cameron Brate (+1600)
Leonard Fournette at +600 is good — he’s found paydirt five times in his past six games and the Chiefs’ run defense isn’t great. But a longshot bet on the tight end who’s been more of a focus in the postseason feels like an underrated bet.
3 Super Bowl MVP
Steven: Patrick Mahomes (+100)
No need to overthink this. Although if you’re looking for a Chiefs alternative, Kelce is your man.
Charles M: Patrick Mahomes (+100)
Sorry, I’m boring. I know.
Charles C: Travis Kelce (+1000)
Obviously it’s going to be Mahomes if the Chiefs win. But if Kelce has a BIG night? I’m willing to wager on that.
4 Patrick Mahomes passing yards (O/U 329.5)
Steven: Over (-120)
Mahomes nearly hit this mark in the first half of the Week 12 game. And I don’t think the Chiefs are going to be running the ball much against that Bucs defense. This is pretty much a lock.
Charles M: Over (-120)
The Chiefs are going to air it the hell out. Their offensive line is banged up and they’re going against the toughest rushing defense in the league. Last time they played, Mahomes threw the ball 49 times. I would expect something similar.
Charles C: Over (-120)
I don’t love the odds, and the fact that Mahomes last went over 329 against the Dolphins back on Dec. 13 might tempt you to go under. But the Chiefs are going to be throwing A LOT on Sunday.
5 Tom Brady pass attempts (O/U 44.5)
Steven: Over (+270)
This is going to be a shootout and the Bucs are not going to keep up running the ball. Brady might throw 50 passes on Sunday night.
Charles M: Over (+270)
Gotta throw to keep up with, and bury, Mahomes. Any game against the Chiefs is automatically a shootout, Brady is going to need to throw the ball over and over again.
Charles C: Over (+270)
I have a feeling the game will be close in the first half before Mahomes and Co. take off in the second. That means Brady will have to throw a lot, and he’ll get to 45 before the night is over.
6 Travis Kelce receptions (O/U 7.5)
Steven: Over (-135)
Way over. Kelce might break the record for receptions in a Super Bowl on Sunday. If the Bucs are content to sit in their soft zones, he’ll feast over the middle.
Charles M: Over (-135)
This is an easy one. Kelce is a mismatch against every defender on the Bucs and he averaged seven catches per game during the regular season. Kelce had eight catches on eight targets the last time the Bucs and Chiefs played.
Charles C: Over (-135)
He had at least eight receptions in nine of his last ten games. The Bucs allowed 86 catches to opposing tight ends this year, seventh-most in the NFL. This is easy money.
7 Mike Evans receptions (O/U 4.5)
Steven: Over (+100)
Brady really looked to target Evans in that first game. And I don’t think the Chiefs will be afraid to leave him one-on-one. With the Bucs needing to throw a ton, Evans could get to this number in the first half.
Charles M: Over (+100)
This one seems a bit low to me. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are both a little banged up entering the Super Bowl. This seems like a prime time for a heavy dose of Mike Evans, especially considering his size advantage over the Chiefs cornerbacks.
Charles C: Over (+100)
It can be boom or bust with Evans — I’ll happily bet on him finding the end zone, but betting on this can be tricky given the receiver’s low volume. But if I think the Bucs will be playing from behind, it means Evans will end up with five or six catches.
8 Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushing yards (O/U 26.5)
Steven: Under (+115)
The Chiefs rotate their running backs and I don’t know if there are enough carries to go around. And with how important blitz pickup could be against the Bucs defense, the rookie might not see the field a whole lot.
Charles M: Over (-140)
As good as the Buccaneers run defense is, this is a pretty low bar to clear for CEH. Bell and Williams will eat into his workload, but CEH is talented enough to hit the over here.
Charles C: Under (+115)
It feels to me like Williams will get the call in the Super Bowl, CEH will have maybe seven or eight carries, and against that tough Bucs run defense, he’s not going anywhere.
9 Tyreek Hill longest reception (O/U 26.5)
Steven: Over (-125)
He might be the greatest deep threat in the history of the game. Mahomes will find a way to get him the ball deep.
Charles M: Over (-125)
Andy Reid and Eric Bienemy are going to figure out a way to get Hill open for at least one deep shot. He had a couple in the first meeting between these teams.
Charles C: (Over -125)
Lock this one in — he’s gone over that total nine times in 2020.
10 Chris Godwin total receptions (O/U 5.5)
Steven: Under (+105)
The Chiefs defense does a good job of defending slot receivers — especially the one who run deeper routes over the middle — and that’s where the Bucs deploy Godwin. Bruce Arians will scheme some easy catches for Godwin with screen passes and whatnot, but it’s going to be hard for him to get targets organically.
Charles M: Over (-130)
Godwin has a pretty favorable matchup against the interior of the Chiefs pass defense. Unless he gets stuck with Tyrann Mathieu following him around the field, Godwin should be able to clear this reception mark.
Charles C: Under (+105)
Surprise! Brady likes to spread the ball around, so Godwin will end up with five and frustrate you.
11 Pick a parlay
Note: BetMGM lists a bunch of ready-made parlays to bet on. We each picked one.
Steven: 10+ points scored in each quarter (+240)
Best Super Bowl Prop Bets 2018 Espn
Usually, Super Bowls get off to slow starts. But both quarterbacks have been here before and I’m expecting big performances from both offenses.
Charles M: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Chris Godwin all over 100 receiving yards (+900)
Go big or go home. Let’s have a shootout.
Charles C: Patrick Mahomes to record 300+ passing yards, Leonard Fournette to record 50+ rushing yards and Chris Godwin to record 80+ receiving yards (+450)
Best Super Bowl Prop Bets
Love the odds, love how simple this seems, definitely going to lose some money on this one.
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